主 题： Presidential Cycles in PEAD
时 间： 2025年12月26日(周五）14:00-16:00
主持人： 曾 涛 经济学院长聘副教授
地 点： 浙江大学紫金港西区成均苑7幢金融研究院530室
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内容提要：
Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) displays presidential cycles: it earns 4.1% per year during Democratic presidencies but its profitability increases significantly to 14.9% during Republican presidencies. Survey-based evidence also indicates substantial underreaction to earnings news when the US president is Republican. The tax component of firm earnings exhibits significantly higher volatility during Republican periods, likely reflecting higher tax policy uncertainty. Consistently, we find that the PEAD is much stronger for firms with larger exposure to tax policy changes during Republican presidencies. This explanation accounts for the observed presidential cycles in PEAD, whereas existing explanations for PEAD cannot. The cycles are more pronounced among non-microcap firms.
演讲人简介：
曾鸣，瑞典哥德堡大学经济系副教授，新加坡管理大学经济学博士。主要研究兴趣是实证资产定价，宏观金融，国际金融，应用计量经济学。论文发表于Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Empirical Finance, Empirical Economics等，另有论文在Journal of Finance返修中。他的论文多次入选金融顶级国际会议如西部金融协会年会（WFA）以及欧洲金融协会年会 （EFA）等。研究成果多次被瑞典国家养老基金采纳。作为独立PI主持瑞典科研基金两项。
主办：浙江大学金融研究院
承办：AFR金融理论与政策研究中心
浙江大学产业投资研究中心
2025年12月16日
